The Rise and Fall of Results Factories – Rosenborg’s Decline and Malmö’s Dominance

For more than a decade, Rosenborg BK was the undisputed locomotive of Norwegian football. The club from Trondheim dominated the Eliteserien throughout the 1990s and early 2000s, winning 13 consecutive league titles between 1992 and 2004 while regularly competing in the UEFA Champions League group stages. According to Hammer and Davidsen’s strategic framework, clubs can position themselves in different ways to sustain long-term success. Rosenborg exemplified a "results factory"—a club designed to maintain a high championship tempo over time through structured leadership, a distinct playing model, and financial control (Hammer & Davidsen, 2021).

However, success eventually crumbled. Since the mid-2010s, Rosenborg has gradually lost its status as Norway’s dominant force. Competitors have caught up, internal stability has deteriorated, and financial strength alone is no longer enough to secure continued dominance. How did a club that once defined Nordic football fall into the shadows of Molde and, most notably, Bodø/Glimt?

A Results Factory in Freefall

To understand Rosenborg's decline, we must examine how a results factory, as defined by Hammer and Davidsen, operates. Such a club is characterized by:

1. A clear sporting identity and continuity – A consistent playing model, a long-term plan, and stable coaching staff.
2. Financial dominance – A significant revenue advantage over competitors that ensures sustained reinvestment in the squad to maintain competitive superiority.
3. Structured recruitment – A focus on maintaining high squad quality through smart acquisitions and internal player development.
4. Internal stability – Few power struggles, a unified club leadership, and minimal external interference in strategy.

In the caseof Rosenborg, all these pillars collapsed. The club cycled through coaches at a frantic pace, lacked a long-term strategy, lost its financial edge, and was plagued by internal conflicts.

Sporting Stagnation and Lost Revenue

During its heyday, Rosenborg was a household name in the Champions League. Between 1995 and 2002, the club participated in eight consecutive group stages and even reached the quarter-finals in 1997. These European achievements generated enormous revenue, both from prize money and increased sponsor attractiveness. After 2010, however, Rosenborg’s presence in European competitions became sporadic. The club frequently exited in the qualifying rounds, leading to drastically reduced UEFA revenue. Without Champions League money, Rosenborg's revenue stagnated while expenses continued to rise. Meanwhile, other clubs like Bodø/Glimt successfully generated substantial transfer revenue and created a business model where European income and player sales were combined to build long-term growth.

Leadership Chaos and Identity Crisis

During Nils Arne Eggen's era, Rosenborg had a clear strategic blueprint: an offensive 4-3-3 system that combined individual brilliance with strong collective play. After Eggen stepped down in 2002, the club went through a long list of coaches, each with different ideas and tactical preferences. Coaches came and went at an unhealthy rate. Between 2015 and 2023, Rosenborg had six different head coaches, leading to constant resets and a club without a clear direction. Sporting leadership lacked patience, and the club’s strategy shifted depending on who was in charge. This instability created an identity crisis, where players and supporters no longer knew what Rosenborg stood for.

Malmö FF’s Unchallenged Position in Sweden

The Swedish football landscape is experiencing a similar imbalance to what Norway saw during Rosenborg's dominance. Malmö FF is currently the only Swedish club with the financial strength to function as a results factory. While Djurgården, Hammarby, and AIK are all trying to compete, the difference in financial stability and strength remains vast.

Over the past decade, Malmö has built a financial structure that allows them to budget for success. Recurring Champions League and Europa League appearances have brought the club hundreds of millions of SEK in additional revenue, creating a safety net for its operations. The 2021 Champions League group stage, for instance, generated over 300 million SEK in UEFA money—an amount that far exceeded the total revenue of most other Allsvenskan clubs that year. Malmö’s annual revenue has remained at 600–700 million SEK, more than double that of its closest competitors.

Djurgården, AIK and Hammarby have seen an increase in revenue, but they lack the financial breadth and cash flow from Europe that Malmö has successfully established. Djurgården, and Hammarby are financially strong, but they are still dependent on player sales to cover budget deficits and lack Malmö’s ability to retain key players over time.

For any of Malmö's competitors to transition into a results factory, several factors must be met:

1. Financial dominance – A club must budget to win the league and have the resources to build a squad where the championship is an expectation rather than an aspiration. Additionally, the club must maintain a sufficiently strong balance sheet to continue budgeting at this level, even if it misses out on success for a few consecutive years, without needing to change its strategy.
2. Strategic continuity – The club must adhere to a long-term sporting plan, even in the face of short-term setbacks.
3. Recruitment model prioritizing ready-made players – A results factory focuses on acquiring players for immediate impact rather than developing young talents for resale.
4. A stable financial foundation – This requires revenue levels that cover expenses without relying on player sales to balance the budget, which in turn demands regular income from European competitions.

At present, no other Swedish club meets these criteria. Djurgården is still balancing between developing talents and pursuing regular participation in group stages and revenue from European competitions and Hammarby is in the early stages of a structured hybrid model, financed through player sales, while AIK struggles with financial deficits. Malmö's dominance looks set to continue, unless strategic missteps create an opening for a shift in power dynamics.